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☆ Treasury yields are surging. Here's what history says might come next for the bond market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury is hovering close to 5%, the highest level in 16 years. Here's what history says about the rise in US bond yields and where Treasurys may be headed next. AdvertisementAdvertisementDuring the 1980s and 1990s, he explained, the 10-year Treasury yield was roughly two times inflation expectations, represented by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. As for where the key bond yield heads next, history points to an answer there, too. There's a less than 1% probability, he says, that the 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.5% barring any significant revision higher in inflation expectations.

Persons: —, Christoph Schon, Treasurys, Schon, " Schon, Jerome Powell, there's, Phillip Colmar, Adam Phillips Organizations: Treasury, Barclays, Service, Fed, MRB Partners, Wealth, Federal Locations: Ukraine, New York

☆ The Fed's next move after raising rates to fight inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some investors are betting on rate cuts as soon as early next year, perhaps on expectations that the economy might soon deteriorate. If unemployment spikes because of higher interest rates, for example, the Fed would likely cut rates to stem job losses under its mandate of maximum employment. The Fed’s tough talk has rattled the bond market, helping push up long-dated yields. In addition to the possibility of cutting rates because of an economic downturn, the Fed could also cut rates if inflation slows too much. “If the Fed sees that inflation goes below the 2% target, they could start decreasing interest rates, but I don’t think they are going to start decreasing interest rates until that happens,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James.

Persons: there’s, Rather, Austan Goolsbee, Mike Hackett, they’ve, ”, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Melissa Brown, China’s ‘ Lehman, Laura, Mengchen Zhang, Technology —, Zhongrong, Read, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Kansas City Fed’s, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Treasury, Nationwide, CNN, Fed, Service, KBC Corporation, Xianheng, Science, Technology, National Association of Realtors, Body, Nvidia, Kansas City, Global, US Commerce Department, Labor Department, Central Bank Locations: Washington, “, China, BJ’s, Abercrombie, Kansas

☆ Investor sentiment on the U.S. is neutral to positive, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestor sentiment on the U.S. is neutral to positive, analyst saysOlivier d'Assier, head of applied research of Asia-Pacific at Qontigo, says the United States has low volatility, good earnings and a resilient economy.

Persons: Olivier d'Assier Locations: Asia, Qontigo, United States

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 24, 2023. Microsoft (MSFT.O) eased 4.0% after laying out an aggressive spending plan to meet demand for its new artificial intelligence (AI)-powered services. "This is indicative of the selectivity we are seeing in big tech after such a stock price surge so far this year." Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.50-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.32-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 24 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 58 new highs and 64 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, David Bahnsen, Melissa Brown, we're, Dow, Jim Vena, Lance Fritz, Wells Fargo, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Savio D'Souza, Anil D'Silva, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Boeing, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Google, NYSE, Bahnsen, Facebook, Applied Research, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dow Jones, Union Pacific, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Qontigo, Bengaluru

"Until we see several months of low or declining inflation, the headline number is still going to be above the 2% target that the Fed has set. Goldman Sachs on Friday raised its year-end price target for the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) to 4,500 from 4,000, citing the broadening of the market rally. Oracle (ORCL.N) advanced 4.3%, hitting an all-time high as J.P. Morgan hiked its price target to $109, ahead of the cloud and enterprise software firm's fourth-quarter results later in the day. Technology stocks (.SPLRCT) led gains among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 while energy stocks (.SPNY) fell 0.5%, tracking a decline in crude prices. Adobe (ADBE.O) shares gained 1.6% after Jefferies increased the Photoshop maker's price target to $530, the second highest on Wall Street.

Persons: Melissa Brown, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Thoma, Jefferies, Shristi Achar, Sruthi Shankar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Oracle Corp, U.S, Labor, Traders, Oracle, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Inc, Thoma Bravo, FDA, NYSE, Thomson Locations: megacap, Bengaluru

☆ Stock market news: The Fed meets next week. What can investors expect?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The S&P 500 Index last week entered a bull market, meaning that it notched a 20% rally from its low in October. Moreover, investors appeared calmer than they have in years, after the United States suspended the debt ceiling in time to avoid a default, allowing investors to breathe a sigh of relief. The May Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports, two key inflation prints, are also due the days that the Fed meets. But the United States could still suffer a downgrade to its credit rating, even though it avoided losing its ability to make payments on time. Tuesday: Consumer Price Index report for May and NFIB small business optimism index.

Persons: CNN — Stocks, Price, ”, JJ Kinahan, there’s, Karim El Nokali, Jerome Powell, ” El Nokali, —, Joe Biden, Benjamin Jeffery, Patrick Klein, ” Josh Lipsky, it’s, Olivier d’Assier, “ It’s, George Mateyo Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Nasdaq, United, Fed, IG North America, Fitch, AAA, BMO Capital Markets, Franklin, GeoEconomics, International Monetary Fund, Treasury Department, US Treasury, Key Private Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Federal, University of Michigan Locations: United States, US

"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, ”, Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo

☆ It's 'all hands on deck' for China's 2023 GDP, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's 'all hands on deck' for China's 2023 GDP, analyst saysOlivier d'Assier, head of applied research of Asia-Pacific at Qontigo, says China's regulators and the government are trying to make sure that the country is "on target" after last year's "big miss."

☆ Banks vs. Fintechs: Why all the billions in the world can't help Wall Street crush its digital rivals
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Bianca Chan | Reed Alexander | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

To compete, banks have written fat checks to acquire fintechs — tech, talent, and all. But on Wall Street, old habits die hard, and Goldman has struggled to make Marcus, a big fintech bet, a success. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Wall Street leaders have been at the helm of a push to get their employees back to their desks. It's more that the very things that make Wall Street, well, Wall Street are preventing it from embracing the ethos of Silicon Valley. And perhaps, for Wall Street, that's the moral of the story.

"It's a knife edge between whether we're going to teeter into a recession or have a soft landing. said Brown who also noted that moves may be exaggerated as many investors take vacation around the end-of-year holidays. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.80-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.63-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 20 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 456 new lows. On U.S. exchanges 11.07 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.59 billion average for the last 20 trading days.

☆ Fed delivers fourth 75 bp hike, signals scale-back coming
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

This statement clearly suggests input from Vice Chair Brainard and opens the door for the Fed to slow down the pace of future rate hikes. Monetary policy today is not sufficiently tight enough. We’ll know when the Fed is done tightening; they’ll tell us by simply saying that monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive. “The last thing we need to see regarding what the Fed will do in the short run is the election. If there’s a sense that fiscal policy will be more cooperative with monetary policy, it will make the Fed’s job easier.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The Bank of England is snapping up bonds to stabilize debt markets — but that goes against its aim of stemming inflation. Here's what you want to know.
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Friday eve means the weekend's just around the corner, but it seems like nobody told the British bond market. The balancing act, at worst, could mean a calamity for the British economy and prolonged volatility in markets. And at best, policymakers thread the needle and stabilize markets, tame inflation, and regain the confidence of traders and everyday folks dealing with a tough economy. A weaker currency means imports get more expensive, and higher bond yields mean government borrowing gets more expensive. What will it take for bond market traders to regain confidence in the UK debt market?

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